Who Said it First? “80% of Roofs are Replaced Prematurely”
From the desk of Rick Lewis, CEO & Founder, Fortis
There’s a statistic that has traveled through the commercial roofing industry for decades: “80% of commercial roofs are replaced prematurely every year.”
If you manage commercial buildings, a portfolio of assets, or a facilities budget – that number has almost certainly crossed your desk. It’s stated with confidence and it’s repeated without question.
However, no one can trace where it came from.
The origin matters. Not just historically, but right now as roofing replacement bids are landing on desks at costs that are 20-30% above 2023 levels and replacement timelines that stretch months into the future. If the foundational assumption driving those bids is an unverified industry statistic, the question isn’t just “where did 80% come from?” The question is: “what if it’s actually closer to 99%?”
Because that’s what the Fortis data shows.
99% of roofs Fortis has evaluated did not need to be replaced before the warranty ran out.
Of over 5,000 commercial roofs assessed over 23+ years, fewer than 10 were replaced before warranty expiration.
Where the 80% Came From
The first time I heard it was in the mid-1990s, in a management meeting at a different company. Our chairman said it with confidence of something that had been settled. He may have derived it from the 80/20 principle – the Pareto rule that 80% of outcomes come from 20% of causes. He may have built it from operational intuition. He looked at the roofs we were managing and believed it to be true.
I believed it too. That conviction eventually led to what is today the Fortis reconditioning and warranty model.
Over the years, I’ve heard the 80% figure attributed to a study by the NRCA, to GAF, to unnamed industry research. Searching online turns up nothing of the sort. The statistic has survived and spread for 30 years or more without a verifiable source.
That tells you something about the roofing industry. Replacement is the default assumption. When a roof gets flagged, it gets replaced. The process of asking whether replacement is actually necessary, or evaluating reconditioning as an alternative before approving a bid, is not standard practice.
At Fortis, we have a 2006 corporate brochure from when the company was still called Kieft Warranty Systems. On the cover: “over 80% of re-roofs are premature and can be deferred 5-15 years.” That document predates most online references to the statistic. We may not have coined the number, but we were building the operational model to prove it and expand upon it while others were still debating whether it was true.
What Our Data Actually Shows
Fortis has evaluated over 5,000 commercial roof systems over the past 23 years. We’ve tracked roof types, building conditions, reconditioning outcomes, and warranty performance across that entire history.
Of those ~5,000 roofs, fewer than ten were replaced before the warranty ran out.
The industry trop is 80%. Fortis data puts it closer to 99%.
The reason isn’t that we reconditioned easy roofs. The reason is that we built a program specifically designed to extend roof life beyond what conventional replacement timelines assume, and backed it with a warranty underwritten by Lloyd’s of London because the data gave us confidence to make that commitment.
“A couple of years ago we used Fortis to recondition and warranty a roof, saving my owner several hundred thousand dollars. While the savings was great, we’ve experienced zero roof problems after the reconditioning and roof warranty guarantee services. I enthusiastically recommend Fortis.”
– Julia A. Such
Property Manager, The Village at Park Centre
That quote reflects what happens when a client has seen the analysis. They’ve watched roofs that inspectors flagged for replacement continue to perform for another decade after a Fortis reconditioning. They’ve stopped taking replacement recommendations at face value. When a roof reaches the “end” of its conventional lifespan, they turn to Fortis first.
Hear It Directly From Rick Lewis
In the video below, Fortis CEO & Chairman Rick Lewis shares the moment the 80% figure first appeared, and what two decades of roof reconditioning and warranty data has confirmed sense.
Rick Lewis, CEO & Founder, recounts the first time he ever heard the “80%” statistic.
What the 80% Statistic Means for Your Next Roofing Decision
If 80% of commercial roofs are replaced prematurely, and Fortis’ own data puts that number closer to 99%, the first question to ask when a replacement recommendation lands on your desk is: has this roof been evaluated for Fortis Reconditioning?
A standard inspection tells you the roof’s condition. It does not tell you whether the roof can be restored to a warrantable, performance-guaranteed condition at a fraction of the replacement cost. It doesn’t model reconditioning as an alternative. It doesn’t give you the data to push back on a bid.
The Fortis Roof Risk Assessment answers that question specifically. It systematically evaluates the roof system and produces a direct financial comparison between Fortis Reconditioning and current replacement cost. Before you approve your next bid, let the data tell you whether it’s time.
Spring is when many of these roofing bids start to arrive. It’s also when budget cycles are moving and the pressure to just approve the replacement is highest. The 80% statistic, regardless of origin, exists because replacement is the default. But it doesn’t have to be your default.
Replacement should only come when it’s absolutely necessary – according to data, not old industry habits. We believe your roof should be an asset, not a liability. And we’re the only company in the industry that Lloyd’s of London stands behind with the most comprehensive and least restrictive warranty available. As we always say: don’t replace a roof until Fortis says it’s time. When in doubt, think Fortis First.
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